UCLA falls just short of CBS Sports playoff projection after losing Iamaleava for season

UCLA beat Oregon on the road and is 5-0 for the first time since 2022, but the Bruins are not in the latest College Football Playoff bracket projection from CBS Sports. John Talty's projection lists UCLA under "just missed the cut," and the main reason is quarterback Nico Iamaleava's knee injury.

Iamaleava was hurt in the win over the Ducks. CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz reported Monday that he is expected to miss the rest of the season. He had thrown for 982 yards and four touchdowns under first-year coach Bob Chesney. Ty Dieffenbach, a transfer from Cal Poly who has thrown six passes for the Bruins this season, now takes over. CBS Sports' forecasting model ranks UCLA 14th nationally in playoff odds. That number would climb to 36.4% with a win this weekend.

The Big Ten picture in the projection runs through Ohio State. The Buckeyes stay at No. 2 as the projected conference champion, and that slot assumes they beat Indiana in Saturday's top-five game. Indiana moved up one spot to No. 6 after coming back to win at Nebraska. Iowa joined UCLA, BYU, Missouri and Mississippi State on the list of teams just outside the field. Notre Dame climbed from sixth to fourth after a 58-7 rout of Stanford, and Georgia took the top spot. Oregon fell out of the 12-team field after losing to UCLA, which moved Utah up to No. 10.

Dieffenbach's first start comes against Wisconsin, a team Talty called resurgent. The Badgers (4-1) visit No. 12 UCLA on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. EDT on NBC. UCLA is favored at -120 on Novig, one of the venues pricing the game. The spread is UCLA -2.5 and the total is 43.5. The best sportsbook price on the Bruins is -130 at Fanatics. That tight number reflects the uncertainty at quarterback. Full pricing is on the Wisconsin at UCLA odds page.

Talty argued the Bruins can still win without big passing numbers. UCLA ranks sixth nationally in rushing at 253 yards per game, and its defense forced seven turnovers against Oregon. In his view, UCLA "doesn't need huge numbers out of its new quarterback." Average play that keeps defenses from loading the box against running back Wayne Knight would be enough. After Wisconsin, the Bruins still play Michigan State, Minnesota, Michigan and No. 19 USC. USC is the only ranked opponent left on the schedule.

He also noted that the injury came early enough that the selection committee should not hold it against UCLA if the Bruins keep winning. Florida State lost Jordan Travis late in 2023 and had no chance to prove itself before it was left out. Talty's outlook is that an undefeated UCLA is in the field, an 11-1 UCLA has a strong case as long as Oregon doesn't collapse, and a 10-2 finish with losses to Wisconsin and USC could leave the Bruins out.

Oregon (3-2) has a quick chance to recover. The Ducks host Nebraska (5-1) on Saturday at 11 p.m. EDT on Fox, with the Cornhuskers coming off the home loss to Indiana. Oregon is favored at -251 on Novig and by 7.5 points, with a total of 52.5. FanDuel's -275 is the best sportsbook price on the Ducks. More is on the Nebraska at Oregon odds page.