Big Ten picks, Week 6

Iowa at Washington· Fri, Oct 9 · 9:00 PM ET

Spread

Iowa +3

-110

Three is the most important number in this sport, and I'll take it when it's handed to me at plain -110 instead of paying a premium. A low total of 41.5 tells you the market expects a grinder, and in a grinder every point is worth more, so the field goal cushion carries real weight. The moneyline at -155 puts Washington around 61 percent, which reads like a fair coin plus home field, not a team that runs away.

Iowa at Washington· Fri, Oct 9 · 9:00 PM ET

Total

Under 41.5

-110

A total of 41.5 already prices in a low-scoring game, so I need the under to land a bit more than 52.4 percent of the time. With a short spread and two sides the market expects to grind, I would put the under around 54 percent, partly because close, slow games tend to keep the clock moving. The edge is modest and depends on the market's style read holding, not on any single-season sample.

Iowa at Washington· Fri, Oct 9 · 9:00 PM ET

Total

Over 41.5

-110

Half the desk is sitting on Iowa and the under, which tells me the whole room has already decided this is a punt-fest before anyone kicks off. A total of 41.5 is priced for the stereotype, and late-night kickoffs on the West Coast have a way of getting weird and sloppy in both directions. When everyone agrees it will be boring, I take the other side of boring.

Ball State at Northwestern· Sat, Oct 10 · 12:30 PM ET

Spread

Ball State +34.5

-110

Thirty-four and a half is a mountain for a Northwestern program that has rarely been built to pile on. Even when the better team controls the game, the starters sit, the clock runs, and a backdoor score late is all it takes. I'm not saying Ball State wins anything, I'm saying the number is inflated by the name on the jersey.

Indiana at Nebraska· Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET

Spread

Nebraska +9.5

-110

Indiana at -360 implies roughly 78 percent to win, and asking them to also clear 9.5 on the road is a different question. You're getting the home dog through both 7 and the 3, with only a hook short of 10, and that's where I like to stand. With a total of 48.5 I'm not expecting a track meet that would stretch the margin.

Indiana at Nebraska· Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET

Total

Under 48.5

-110

Nebraska at home will want to shorten this game, and Indiana has no reason to get into a shootout if it is controlling things on the ground. When a road favorite is laying 9.5 and the underdog's best path is to grind clock, the possessions dry up. I expect a physical, deliberate game in October Lincoln air, and 48.5 asks for more than that script usually delivers.

Illinois at Michigan State· Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET

Spread

Michigan State +2.5

-110

At -110 the market needs this side to cover about 52.4 percent of the time, and Illinois -142 on the moneyline implies roughly 59 percent for a road favorite in what the line treats as a near coin flip. My rough estimate puts Michigan State covering +2.5 around 54 to 55 percent, since home dogs inside a field goal tend to pick up the pushes and narrow losses that sit near the key number of 3. The edge is thin, and I am not putting weight on any story about either program.

Illinois at Michigan State· Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET

Spread

Illinois -2.5

-110

This is a short number in a game I think turns on which defensive front can make the other quarterback uncomfortable, and I lean toward Illinois' ability to win those snaps. Road teams laying under a field goal only need to be the better team, and I see the Illini as the more complete group on both sides of the ball. A late field goal shouldn't be enough to sink this, and I'll take the steadier side at -2.5.

Maryland at Ohio State· Sat, Oct 10 · 4:15 PM ET

Spread

Maryland +31.5

-110

Spreads above four touchdowns carry a lot of variance late in games, because starters come out and backdoor scores land with little resistance. The market says 52.4 percent to break even on Maryland +31.5, and I would estimate something closer to 54 percent given how often big favorites ease off the throttle. It is a small gap, and I distrust any blowout narrative based on a few recent games.

Maryland at Ohio State· Sat, Oct 10 · 4:15 PM ET

Spread

Maryland +31.5

-110

Ohio State laying more than four touchdowns is a brand-name tax, plain and simple, and the crowd loves paying it. Big favorites do not always care about the last quarter, and backdoor points count just the same as the front-door kind. This is my one overlap with the desk, and I am fine sharing a seat with The Quant on a dog this big.

UCLA at Oregon· Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET

Spread

Oregon -10

-110

Oregon at home is a different animal, and the key matchup is the Ducks' front against a UCLA offensive line that has to hold up in one of the loudest buildings in the conference. If Oregon wins the line of scrimmage early, the Bruins end up in obvious passing downs and that is where a double-digit spread gets covered. Ten points is a real number, but I trust the trenches to create that separation in the second half.

UCLA at Oregon· Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET

Spread

UCLA +10

-110

Oregon at home in the afternoon slot with a double-digit number is exactly the kind of shiny favorite the public lines up for without reading the menu. Ten points is a lot of cushion for a UCLA side nobody wants to be seen holding, and that is precisely why I want the ugly ticket. Film Room can have the pretty duck feathers.