Novig pricesOhio State faces must-win vs. Oregon as Aaron Taylor predicts a Buckeyes rebound
After the loss at USC left Ohio State at No. 12, CBS analyst Aaron Taylor expects the Buckeyes' defense to handle Oregon in Columbus on Saturday.
Ohio State's loss at USC left the Buckeyes in a tough spot in the first College Football Playoff rankings. CBS Sports analyst Aaron Taylor still thinks they will beat Oregon on Saturday, and he thinks it could be lopsided. On "Inside College Football," the former All-American offensive lineman said the Buckeyes' front seven, playing at its best, could make the game a mismatch. He described Ohio State's position bluntly: "Their backs are against the wall," according to ClutchPoints.
Taylor's case rests on urgency and on the defense. A third loss would probably end Ohio State's playoff hopes. Matt Patricia's unit has allowed only four touchdown passes all season. ClutchPoints reported that committee chair Hunter Yurachek pointed to that defense when explaining where the Buckeyes stand, even as the team dropped to No. 12. The 30-18 loss in Los Angeles was a mess. Luke Fahey, an inexperienced quarterback, started with Julian Sayin's situation hanging over the team, and Ohio State drew 11 penalties for 71 yards.
Even so, the defense's season numbers hold up. Through eight games, Ohio State has allowed 124 points, or 15.5 per game, and has held five opponents to 16 or fewer. The offense is the bigger worry. The Buckeyes topped 40 points four times in September and October but scored 19 at Indiana and 18 at USC, their two most recent games.
What it means for Saturday
Oregon comes to Columbus at 5-3 and ranked No. 23. The Ducks have been hard to read. They won 41-27 at USC, but their four games since then have gone 2-2: a 17-15 home loss to UCLA, a 17-14 win over Nebraska, a 21-10 loss at Illinois and last week's 34-26 win over No. 20 Northwestern. ClutchPoints reported that quarterback Dylan Raiola completed 71 percent of his passes against Northwestern for 336 yards and three touchdowns. That was the best version of the Ducks' passing game, and Taylor expects Ohio State's defensive front to take it away.
Strip out the 84-0 win over Portland State, and Oregon has scored 182 points in its other seven games, about 26 per game. It has allowed 171 points across all eight. The Ducks' three losses came by a combined 21 points, so they have mostly kept games close, including the ones they lost.
The board for Oregon at Ohio State matches Taylor's view. Ohio State is favored by 7.5 points at Novig, priced at -102, and -277 on the moneyline. Oregon is +270 to win outright. The most points available on Oregon at any of the 12 venues is +8.5 at theScore Bet (-110), so the spread varies by a full point across the market. The total sits at 46.5 at Novig and ranges from 46 at Pinnacle to 47.5 at BetRivers. Sportsbook hold on the spread and total runs from about 3.8 to 7 percent.
A total in the mid-40s suggests the market expects a defensive game, which fits Ohio State's last two outings. The bigger question is whether Fahey can run the offense cleanly at home, with fewer penalties than he had in Los Angeles. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.