Indiana and Ohio State both ruled 'guilty' in USA TODAY's Fraud Court after Week 9 scares

The Big Ten's two best-known contenders both lost their case this week. In its weekly Fraud Court column, USA TODAY Sports returned a guilty verdict on No. 3 Indiana and No. 10 Ohio State. Last week Indiana needed overtime to get past Minnesota, and Ohio State lost 30-18 at USC.

For Indiana, the verdict comes down to the offense. Minnesota kicker Paddy McAteer hit a 60-yard field goal at the end of regulation to force overtime, and the Hoosiers held on 23-16 only because their defense made a stop in the extra period. Jordan Mendoza, who wrote the column, said the deliberations had dragged on for weeks before he concluded that "Indiana is a fraud." His case is that the defending national champions have scored one touchdown in regulation over their last two games. The season numbers back him up. Indiana averaged 44.2 points through its first five games and 17.8 over the last four, a stretch that includes a 13-6 win at Michigan and a 19-15 home loss to Ohio State. The defense has given up 14.5 points per game over those same four weeks, and that is what has kept the Hoosiers at 8-1.

Ohio State's case is about personnel. Starting quarterback Julian Sayin was out, and Luke Fahey had a hard time in his first career start at the Coliseum. Mendoza argued that losing Sayin also cut into how much receiver Jeremiah Smith can do, and that the preseason No. 1 team's title chances are close to zero if this version of the Buckeyes is the one that finishes the season. The 30 points USC scored are the most anyone has put up on Ohio State this year. Both of the Buckeyes' losses, 24-23 at Texas and the defeat in Los Angeles, came on the road.

The ruling covered more of the Big Ten than just those two. USC was also ruled guilty despite the win, with its case pushed back to the Nov. 14 trip to Bloomington. Northwestern was convicted after giving up a 20-6 lead at Oregon. Wisconsin was convicted after losing 30-0 to Iowa.

What it means for Ohio State-Oregon

Ohio State comes home at 6-2 to face Oregon on Saturday on CBS. The Buckeyes are 4-0 in Columbus this season and have scored at least 42 points in three of those games, but none of those wins came against a team like Oregon. The Ducks got into this week by rallying from 14 points down against Northwestern, though USA TODAY had already put Oregon on its own list of convicted teams earlier in the fall.

The market still has Ohio State as a clear favorite. On this site's board, which tracks 12 venues, Novig has the Buckeyes at -251 on the moneyline and Oregon at +233. Hard Rock Bet has the best Oregon price, +240. On the spread, Novig lists Ohio State -7.5 at +106 and Pinnacle has them at -7. The total is 46.5 at Novig and 47.5 at BetRivers. The venues are within half a point of each other on the spread and a point on the total, and sportsbook hold on the moneyline runs from 4.0% to 5.9%. Those prices assume a working Ohio State offense. They will likely move once there is clarity on who starts at quarterback.

Indiana is off this week before USC visits on Nov. 14. That gives the Hoosiers two weeks to fix an offense that a national columnist has now formally convicted.