Ohio State's loss at USC turns Saturday's Oregon game into a playoff test

Ohio State has gone from a team chasing the No. 1 seed to a team that has to prove it still belongs in the College Football Playoff field. Saturday's 30-18 loss at USC dropped the Buckeyes to 6-2, and College Football News columnist Pete Fiutak says this week's home game against Oregon now carries the whole season. In his view, a convincing win should bring the swagger back. Another narrow escape like the one at Indiana could leave Ohio State out of the playoff picture.

The loss came with a true freshman at quarterback. Luke Fahey made his first start in place of Julian Sayin, who hurt his throwing arm in the Oct. 17 win at Indiana and is out indefinitely, according to the Associated Press. 247Sports reported that Fahey, who grew up about 50 miles from the Coliseum, went 21 of 38 for 260 yards. His only touchdown pass, to Jeremiah Smith, came late. USC scored on a 69-yard catch-and-run 39 seconds into the game, and Ohio State never recovered. The Buckeyes drew 11 penalties for 75 yards. Ryan Day put the loss on the whole roster, telling 247Sports his team was not "able to play well enough to support a young freshman quarterback."

The box score made it look closer than it was. Fiutak notes that Ohio State ran for 204 yards and held the ball for close to 40 minutes, yet stalled drives and flags kept it from turning that control into points. He also writes that this defense is not at the level of the units that carried the program in recent seasons. The 12-point margin was Ohio State's worst regular-season loss since Michigan beat it 45-23 in 2022.

What it means for Oregon

The scores show the offense was slowing down before the USC game. Ohio State put up 42, 31 and 45 points in early October, then managed 19 at Indiana and 18 in Los Angeles. Its two losses, 24-23 at Texas and now at USC, both came on the road. Saturday's game is at home on CBS, and the rest of the schedule is Northwestern, a trip to Nebraska, and Michigan. That leaves room to recover, but Oregon is the hardest game left. The Ducks have already beaten USC 41-27, so they handled the team that just beat the Buckeyes.

The market still has Ohio State as the stronger team. On this site's board for the game, which tracks 12 venues, Ohio State is favored at -251 on Novig's moneyline. Oregon is +245 there, and the best Oregon price anywhere is +250 at Hard Rock Bet. Novig lists Ohio State at -7.5 (-102). DraftKings has the best Buckeyes spread at -7 (-115), and Hard Rock Bet offers Oregon +7.5 at -110 against Novig's -117. Novig sets the total at 48.5, while Pinnacle is at 48. On the moneyline, the venues differ by only a few points, and sportsbook hold ranges from 4.0% to 5.6%.

A spread above a touchdown shows the market still trusts Ohio State's talent, even with Fahey only one start into his career. Saturday will show whether the Buckeyes can play clean enough around him to back that up. Fiutak has said a narrow win will not settle the playoff question.