USC rises, Ohio State slides after Trojans' 30-18 upset of the No. 2 Buckeyes

USC's 30-18 win over second-ranked Ohio State has changed the outlook for both programs. The Trojans are now one of the Big Ten's rising teams, while the Buckeyes enter November with two losses and their starting quarterback out of the lineup.

USA TODAY Sports put USC first among its risers after Week 9. It noted that the result was Lincoln Riley's first win over a top-five opponent since 2017, when he was coaching Oklahoma. At 7-2, USC still controls its own path, and the outlet described the upset as the kind of momentum that could carry Riley's fifth Trojans team into the College Football Playoff for the first time under him. The win came a week after a flat 24-7 loss at Wisconsin, which made the bounce-back more striking. USC's earlier road win at Penn State and its home win over Washington gave the Trojans a résumé that now holds up.

Ohio State landed on the other side of the ledger. USA TODAY Sports reported that the offense struggled without Julian Sayin at quarterback, and it framed the loss as a threat to the Buckeyes' season and to Jeremiah Smith's Heisman Trophy chances. With Oregon, Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan left and no starting quarterback, the outlet put Ohio State in danger of missing the playoff even with one of the deepest rosters in the country. Ryan Day now has to get Fahey or freshman Tavien St. Clair ready to win games.

The numbers back up the concern. Ohio State scored 56, 59 and 42 points in three of its first five games. Over the last two weeks it has managed 19 points in a win at Indiana and 18 at USC. Both of its losses, 24-23 at Texas and the loss in Los Angeles, came on the road against ranked opponents. The Buckeyes are 6-2, and margin for error is now limited.

What it means for Oregon at Ohio State

The Buckeyes return home Saturday, Nov. 7, against Oregon on CBS. USA TODAY Sports noted that the Ducks are unranked but not yet eliminated from playoff contention, and that a win in Columbus would revive their case while pushing Ohio State toward the bubble. Oregon has already shown it can handle this caliber of opponent, having beaten USC 41-27 in Los Angeles earlier this season.

The market still sees Ohio State as the stronger team. Across the 12 venues on this site's board, the Buckeyes are favored by about a touchdown. Novig lists Ohio State at -245 on the moneyline and Oregon at +233, while BetRivers has the best Oregon price at +240. On the spread, Novig has Ohio State -7.5 at +108 and Oregon +7.5 at -115. Pinnacle has the shortest Buckeyes number at -7 (-113), and theScore Bet has the best Oregon +7.5 at -110. Sportsbook hold runs from 4.0% to 5.6% on the moneyline and from 3.8% to 6.7% on the spread, so the venues are not far apart. The total sits at 46.5 at Novig, with BetRivers at 47.5. That total is low for a Buckeyes team that was scoring at will in September.

USC gets a week to reset before visiting No. 6 Indiana on Nov. 14. USA TODAY Sports also listed the Hoosiers among its fallers, so that game could decide which Big Ten contender is still trending up.