Illinois needs two wins in five weeks, and Maryland may be its clearest shot at a bowl

Illinois has five games left to find two wins, and the beating 21-10 Oregon took in Champaign on Saturday made that look more doable than it did a month ago. The schedule still makes it hard. A rest-of-season projection from Roundtable Sports, published on Yahoo Sports, has the Fighting Illini winning only one of their last five and finishing 5-7, one win short of a bowl.

The outlook depends on Saturday's trip to Maryland. Roundtable points to ESPN's FPI, which gives Illinois a 69.5% chance in College Park, and says that is the only game left in which Illinois is favored. After that come Nebraska (5-2) and unbeaten No. 7 UCLA, both on Fridays, then Iowa (5-2) at home and a road finale at No. 20 Northwestern (6-1). Roundtable projects losses in all four. That means Illinois would have to beat Maryland and also pull off at least one upset against a better conference team.

The quarterback situation adds to the pressure. 247Sports reported that starter Katin Houser will miss a considerable amount of time with a hand injury, and Roundtable suggests he might be back for the Northwestern game. If Illinois gets to that rivalry game at 5-6, it would be playing for bowl eligibility.

What it means for Saturday at Maryland

Seven games in, Illinois is 4-3 overall and 2-2 in the Big Ten. It has outscored opponents 212-177, or about 30 points to 25 a game. The season has been uneven. Illinois lost 27-31 at home to Duke, beat Southern Illinois 48-10, then lost to Purdue 17-24 and at Ohio State 19-42. The last two weeks have gone better: a 38-37 win at Michigan State and then the 21-10 result against Oregon, the lowest total Illinois has allowed to an FBS opponent this year.

Maryland is 2-5 and 0-4 in the conference. Roundtable notes the Terrapins have lost five straight by an average of more than 24 points. ESPN reported that the school fired Mike Locksley during a 12-game Big Ten losing streak. Programs can respond to a coaching change in either direction, and that makes the Terps harder to read than their record suggests. Kickoff is Saturday on FS1.

The market sees a closer game than FPI does. Across the nine venues on this site's board, Illinois is favored at -125 on Novig. The best moneyline price anywhere is FanDuel's -122, so the venues are close together on the favorite. Novig has Maryland at +120. On the spread, Illinois is favored by 2.5 at -102 on Novig, a short number for a team its own model rates closer to a 70% chance. Novig lists the total at 54.5, -108 on the over and -102 on the under. Elsewhere it sits between 54 and 55, with Pinnacle's over at 54 and Fanatics' under at 55 as the best of those prices. Sportsbook hold runs 3.4% to 6.4% on the moneyline and up to 7.0% on the spread and total.

That 2.5-point margin makes Saturday look like a toss-up, but for Illinois the result carries more weight than one game. A loss in College Park would leave the Illini needing two wins from four games in which they are projected underdogs.