USC's Lincoln Riley faces mounting pressure as Ohio State arrives without Julian Sayin

Lincoln Riley's USC team scored seven points at Wisconsin last Saturday, the fewest any team he has coached has ever scored. The 24-7 loss came with a week to go before No. 2 Ohio State visits Los Angeles. Riley's job security is now a topic of open debate, but the Buckeyes will arrive with a problem of their own: they are expected to be without their starting quarterback.

EssentiallySports reports that Julian Sayin hurt his right throwing shoulder in Ohio State's 19-15 win at Indiana. Ryan Day expects him to miss the rest of the season, including the postseason. True freshman Luke Fahey, a former three-star recruit from Mission Viejo, California, is considered the frontrunner to start. Tavien St. Clair also took first-team snaps during the bye week, and Day is consulting with offensive coordinator Arthur Smith before he names a starter.

The loss in Madison went beyond the score. According to the same report, USC had the better success rate but threw two interceptions, and Wisconsin did not turn the ball over. The Badgers won by 17 with roughly 200 yards of total offense. Riley did not offer excuses afterward. "We flat out didn't play good enough on any of the three sides of the ball," he said, as quoted by EssentiallySports. National commentators have framed Saturday as a defining game for him. His record at USC is 41-20 over five seasons, and the Trojans have not won more than nine games since going 11-3 in 2022. EssentiallySports also cites a Joel Klatt estimate that a coaching change could cost USC $100 million to $120 million once Riley's reported $70 million buyout, staff buyouts and a new hire are counted.

What it means for Ohio State at USC

USC is 6-2, but its offense has been sliding. The Trojans averaged nearly 43 points across their first four games, a stretch that included a 42-35 win at Rutgers. They have scored 63 points in the three games since, an average of 21. Wins over Washington (25-21) and at Penn State (31-23) came before the drop in Madison. The defense has given up 25 points per game overall, including 41 to Oregon in the Trojans' other loss. The schedule after Saturday does not get easier: a bye, then a trip to Indiana on Nov. 14, Maryland at home, and unbeaten UCLA on Nov. 28.

The board on this site still has Ohio State favored even with the quarterback change. Across 12 venues, Novig has the Buckeyes at -233 to win outright and USC at +223. The best USC price anywhere is +229 at Kalshi. On the spread, Novig lists Ohio State -7.5 at +106, while Hard Rock Bet has the Buckeyes -6.5 at -120, so the number sits between a touchdown and a little more. The total is 50.5 at Novig, and Pinnacle has the best under price at 51 (-118). Sportsbook hold on the moneyline runs from 3.7% to 6.1%, so the gap between the cheapest and most expensive venues is meaningful. Full prices are on the Ohio State at USC odds page. Kickoff is 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.

Wisconsin (5-2) goes to Iowa the same day. Iowa is favored at -153 on Novig and by 3 to 3.5 points across the market (Wisconsin at Iowa). The total of 37.5 points to another low-scoring game for the Badgers.