Novig pricesPurdue heads to Iowa with Barry Odom calling the defense after firing Kevin Kane
Purdue has lost three straight and fired its defensive coordinator, and Barry Odom will call the defense himself at Iowa, a 17.5-point favorite.
Purdue will play at Iowa on Saturday with head coach Barry Odom calling the defense himself. Odom fired defensive coordinator Kevin Kane on Sunday, ESPN reported. He made the move a week before Purdue's toughest road trip of the month. The Boilermakers were 3-3 after wins over Illinois and Minnesota. They have lost three straight since and are 3-6.
In its preview, Hammer and Rails, the SB Nation Purdue site (via Yahoo Sports), lays out what Odom inherits. Purdue allows 170.8 rushing yards per game at 5.2 yards a carry and ranks 86th nationally in stuff rate. The defense has improved at taking the ball away, though. It forced two turnovers through the end of September and nine since. The site's argument is that Purdue has to hold Iowa to short gains on first down. That would take away the play-action game for quarterback Hank Brown, who has 1,316 passing yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions, and force him into obvious passing downs. Running back LJ Phillips ran for 128 yards on 21 carries in last week's win at Northwestern.
The preview also points to two problems on offense. Quarterback Ryan Browne struggles when he doesn't have a clean pocket, and Iowa's four-man front is led by Joseph Anderson with four sacks and Bryce Hawthorne with 3.5. The other problem is the red zone. Freshman kicker Jacobo Echeverria Lozano has made 21 of 22 field goals, but Purdue settled for kicks in the first half against Maryland. It led only 12-7 at the break and lost 34-29.
What it means for Saturday
Purdue's defense is a long way from Iowa's. In ESPN's results, the Boilermakers have allowed 291 points in nine games, about 32 per game. They gave up 38, 31 and 34 during the losing streak. Iowa has allowed 110, about 12 per game. The Hawkeyes have three shutouts, including a 30-0 win over Wisconsin two weeks ago, and have allowed 10 points in their last two games combined. They lost 13-10 at Minnesota and 31-14 to Ohio State.
The offenses are closer. Purdue averages about 29 points and Iowa about 28. Minnesota is the one opponent both teams have played. Purdue beat the Gophers 41-13, and Iowa lost to them by three. Those results suggest that Purdue's offense can score in this game if the line holds up. The question is whether a defense under new leadership can stop the run.
On this site's board, Iowa is a heavy favorite across 12 venues. Novig has the Hawkeyes at -852 on the moneyline and Purdue at +809. Novig sets the spread at Iowa -17.5 at even money (-100). BetMGM has the best Iowa number anywhere at -17, priced at -112. Novig has the total at 47.5. Pinnacle has the best under price at 48 (-111). The venues are only a half-point apart on both the spread and the total. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.3% to 5.9% on the moneyline and from 3.4% to 6.7% on the spread.
With Odom calling plays, Purdue needs to win early downs on defense and score touchdowns instead of field goals to stay within the spread. Kickoff is Saturday on NBC.