Novig pricesUCLA rises, Indiana slips: Big Ten down to two CFP teams after second ranking
UCLA climbed to No. 4 and Indiana fell to No. 9 in the second CFP ranking, which leaves Iowa as the Big Ten's first team out.
The Big Ten has two teams in the College Football Playoff field after the selection committee's second ranking, and they are headed in opposite directions. Unbeaten UCLA moved up four spots to No. 4. According to the College Football Playoff, that is the highest ranking the committee has ever given the Bruins. Indiana fell from No. 4 to No. 9 during its open week, and ESPN's Heather Dinich now lists the Hoosiers as the league's last team in.
Indiana did not lose a game to fall that far. Dinich writes that the committee rewarded the teams above the Hoosiers that added statement wins. Indiana is 8-1 but has not beaten a team in the CFP top 25, and its strength of schedule ranks 42nd. Its 19-15 home loss to Ohio State also looks worse now that the Buckeyes have dropped to No. 20 after losing 41-28 at home to Oregon. At No. 9, Indiana would play its first-round game at Tennessee in the projected bracket and would not host.
Iowa is the first Big Ten team out. The Hawkeyes moved up from No. 19 to No. 15. Hawk Central points out that this makes Iowa the conference's third-highest team, ahead of No. 16 Oregon, No. 18 USC and No. 20 Ohio State. The 12th spot goes to the highest-ranked Group of 6 team, which is currently Boise State, so Iowa has to reach No. 11 by the final ranking on Dec. 6. ESPN lists Oregon, USC, Ohio State and Wisconsin as still in the mix and counts the rest of the conference as out.
What it means this week
The first test comes Friday night on Fox, when UCLA hosts Illinois. The Illini are 6-3 and have won four straight. One of those wins was 21-10 over Oregon, which ESPN gives the next-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game after UCLA and Indiana. UCLA is 9-0 and has outscored its last three opponents 89-30. On this site's board, UCLA is favored at -344 on Novig, one of 12 venues listed. Novig has the spread at 9.5 points. The widest number for Illinois is +10.5 at Hard Rock Bet, priced at -115. Sportsbook hold on the moneyline runs from 3.7% to 6.0%.
Indiana gets a chance to answer the committee on Saturday at home against No. 18 USC. The Trojans have the win Indiana couldn't get, a 30-18 victory over Ohio State, though they also lost 24-7 at Wisconsin. Indiana is coming off narrow wins of 23-16 over Minnesota and 13-6 at Michigan. The USC-Indiana board has the Hoosiers favored at -326 on Novig and by 9.5 points. Hard Rock Bet has Indiana -9.5 at -110, the best Hoosiers price listed, and theScore Bet has the best USC number at +10.5.
Iowa is favored by 17.5 points over Purdue on Novig and at -809 on the moneyline, according to the Purdue-Iowa board. Purdue has lost three straight. The Hawkeyes' defense has allowed 10 points or fewer in four of their nine games.
Oregon has the bigger spread gap of the two remaining games. The Ducks are favored at -388 on Novig against Michigan, and the spread is 10.5 there but 12.5 for Michigan at BetRivers, according to the Michigan-Oregon board. Ohio State is favored at -506 against Northwestern and by 14.5 on Novig, with BetRivers at 13.5, on the Northwestern-Ohio State board. The Buckeyes have lost two straight, and they need a win to stay in ESPN's mix.