Oregon hosts a changed Michigan without Tuioti, and the Ducks need to win clearly

Oregon has played its way back into the conversation with a 41-28 win at Ohio State. That win also made Saturday's home game against Michigan one the Ducks cannot afford to drop, and Bjorn Bergstrom of Ducks Wire argues that a close win may not be enough either. The No. 16 Ducks (6-3) are double-digit favorites, and with College Football Playoff rankings still unsettled, how they win matters as much as winning.

The Ohio State win cost Oregon its best defensive voice. Edge rusher Teitum Tuioti was carted off in the fourth quarter in Columbus, and coach Dan Lanning said Monday that Tuioti will miss the rest of the season and have knee surgery, ESPN reported. Ducks Wire describes the loss of his leadership as possibly bigger than the loss of his snaps. The outlet expects edge Matayo Uiagalelei and fifth-year linebacker Devon Jackson to speak up more, both against Michigan and in any playoff run.

Michigan (5-4) arrives in worse shape. The Wolverines fired their offensive coordinator this week after a 15-6 home loss to Michigan State and did not confirm their quarterback until Tuesday. True freshman Tommy Carr has thrown three interceptions and taken 11 sacks in three starts, according to Ducks Wire. Michigan has given the ball away 17 times, which ranks 129th nationally, and Oregon has forced 13 turnovers. Bergstrom's view is that all the change on Michigan's side makes the Wolverines harder to game-plan for, even if it does not make them better.

The matchup that worries Oregon is up front. Ducks Wire ranks Michigan's run defense 17th nationally at about 100 yards allowed per game, while Oregon's rushing attack sits 94th. Kicking is another concern. Gage Hurych started the season 9-of-9, then went 1-for-4 at Illinois and came up short on a 52-yard attempt at Ohio State.

What it means Saturday

Michigan's season follows a clear pattern. The Wolverines have not allowed more than 21 points in any of their nine games, and six of those games were decided by seven points or fewer. Their offense has scored six points twice in the last three weeks, in losses to Indiana and Michigan State, and its only score above 28 came against UTEP. Oregon has scored 34 and 41 in back-to-back wins over ranked teams. All three of its losses, to Oklahoma State, UCLA and Illinois, came when the opponent controlled the game, and the Illinois loss came with the offense held to 10 points.

The board on our game page expects the Ducks to win clearly. Oregon is favored by 10.5 points, and Novig lists the Ducks at -365 on the moneyline and +104 on the spread. Michigan is +344 at Novig, and the best price across the 12 venues is +360 at theScore Bet. The total of 38.5 shows how much the market expects Michigan to slow the game down. The Under is even money at Novig, and Fanatics has the best number on that side at 39, priced at -110. Sportsbook hold on the moneyline runs from 3.7% to 6.2%, so the venues differ more in margin than in their view of the game.

If Oregon builds a lead early, Michigan's offense is not built to come back. If the Wolverines keep the score in the teens into the fourth quarter, the game could come down to Hurych.