Ohio State, Oregon meet as backup-QB playoff elimination game, not the expected top-two clash

Ohio State and Oregon were supposed to play this game in Columbus as the two best teams in the country. Instead, the preseason No. 1 and No. 2 meet Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS. The playoff committee has them at No. 12 and No. 23, they have five losses between them, and neither starting quarterback is available. ESPN's David Hale called it a marquee matchup turned undercard. He wrote that a loss would likely end the playoff case of whichever team takes it.

The Buckeyes' quarterback situation got clearer this week. ClutchPoints reported that Julian Sayin had surgery on a fractured right elbow. Ryan Day didn't confirm or deny that, but he said the recovery "will take some time." Freshman Luke Fahey made his first start in last week's 30-18 loss at USC, and the offense struggled to move the ball. Bo Jackson still ran for a season-high 121 yards, and Jeremiah Smith caught 10 passes for 83 yards and a touchdown.

Oregon is also starting a replacement, with Dante Moore out. Dylan Raiola was benched after a rough day against UCLA but has played steadily over the past three games. He threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns in the 34-26 win over Northwestern, which CBS Sports called his best game as a starter.

The rest of the Big Ten slate matters too. ESPN put unbeaten No. 8 UCLA on upset alert at Minnesota. It noted that the Bruins' seven touchdown passes are the fewest for an 8-0 power-conference team since 2012 Notre Dame. ESPN also pointed out that 6-2 Northwestern was left out of the committee's top 25 while 6-2 Iowa came in at No. 19. The two play each other in Evanston.

What it means for Saturday

Ohio State is 6-2, and both losses came on the road: 24-23 at Texas and 30-18 at USC. The Buckeyes won all four home games by at least 23 points, all before Sayin got hurt. Oregon is 5-3 and 1-2 on the road, with losses at Oklahoma State and Illinois. Before scoring 34 against Northwestern, the Ducks put up 10, 17 and 15 points in three of their previous four games.

The board for this game leans heavily toward the home team. Ohio State is favored at -277 on Novig, and FanDuel's -275 is the best price anywhere on the Buckeyes. Oregon is +257 on Novig and as long as +275 at Hard Rock Bet. Novig has Ohio State giving 7.5 points, while Fanatics has Oregon at +8. The total is 45.5 on Novig and 46.5 at BetMGM. Across the 12 venues, prices on the favorite are within two cents of each other, and sportsbook hold runs from 3.5% to 6.2%.

In the other games, UCLA is favored at -186 on Novig at Minnesota, and Northwestern is favored at -125 against Iowa. Novig has the two favorites giving 4.5 and 2.5 points.