The Heartland Line
No. 25 Northwestern Favored on the Road at Michigan State as Spread Shrinks
Northwestern opened as a 9.5-point favorite at Michigan State, but the line has moved to 7.5 ahead of Pat Fitzgerald's first game against his old program.
Northwestern goes to East Lansing on Saturday favored for the first time this season as a ranked team. The number has already moved, though. The Wildcats opened as 9.5-point favorites over Michigan State, and the spread has since come down to 7.5, Roundtable Sports reported in a story carried by Yahoo Sports.
The drop comes even though Northwestern has been playing well. The Wildcats are 4-1 after beating Ball State 45-14 at New Ryan Field in their homecoming game, and that win moved them into the AP Top 25 at No. 25. Michigan State is 2-4 and has lost four in a row. The latest loss was 38-37 in overtime to Illinois. The Spartans trailed 20-7 at halftime, came back to force overtime and then failed on a two-point conversion. Running back Jaziun Patterson accounted for four touchdowns in the loss.
Roundtable Sports pointed out that the shorter spread doesn't mean anyone expects Michigan State to win outright. It does mean the game is being priced as closer than it was when the line first opened.
Northwestern's offense under coordinator Chip Kelly has been the story of its season. Quarterback Aidan Chiles has thrown for 1,172 yards and nine touchdowns without an interception through five games. He has also run for six scores. The Wildcats have won with different approaches. They ran for 413 yards in a 34-13 win over Penn State, then put up 436 total yards and five touchdowns against Ball State.
Both sidelines have ties to the other program. Pat Fitzgerald, who coached Northwestern for 17 seasons before leaving in 2023, now coaches Michigan State. Chiles is facing his former school after spending the previous two seasons with the Spartans.
Injuries are the main question for Northwestern this week. Offensive lineman Ezomo Oratokhai is out for the season. Tight end Luke Dehnicke and several other players have been in and out of the lineup in recent weeks, according to the report. Whether any of them return could matter against a physical conference opponent.
The stakes are clear for both teams. A win would put Northwestern at 5-1 and help answer questions about how much an easy early schedule has helped its start. For Michigan State, beating a ranked conference team would end the losing streak and could change the direction of a disappointing season.
Where the market stands: Northwestern is favored at -285 on Novig, one of the venues pricing the game, and the best sportsbook price on the Wildcats is -300 at BetMGM. Michigan State is getting 7.5 points, and the total is 48.5. Current prices are on the game page.
No. 25 Northwestern and Michigan State kick off at noon Eastern on Saturday, Oct. 17, at Spartan Stadium. The game streams on Peacock.
