The Heartland Line
Nebraska's second-half schedule looks softer, but Oregon trip starts it with a test
Several of Nebraska's remaining opponents are reeling, but Ohio State and Iowa still loom. First up is a late trip to Oregon, which is favored at -245.
Nebraska is 5-1 at the halfway mark for the third straight season. A look across the rest of its schedule shows several opponents in worse shape than they were a month ago. Cornhuskers Wire ranked the six remaining opponents this week and put Ohio State at the top and Rutgers at the bottom. That ranking points to a stretch where Matt Rhule's team should be favored more often than not, at least until November.
The Buckeyes are the clear problem. Ohio State beat Maryland 45-16 and has scored between 31 and 45 points in each of its first three Big Ten games. Jeremiah Smith has 516 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in conference play. Iowa comes second after a 41-24 win at Washington moved it to 5-1, and the Hawkeyes close the year against Nebraska on Black Friday again. Behind those two, the opponents have problems. Illinois is 3-3 and lost quarterback Katin Houser indefinitely to a broken hand. Washington has lost three in a row and is running for barely 51 yards per conference game. Rutgers had yet to beat an FBS opponent going into its bye.
Oregon ranks third on the list, and that is the game that matters now. The Ducks lost 17-15 to UCLA on Saturday with a stack of giveaways. Cornhuskers Wire counted seven turnovers, and Husker Corner counted six. Dylan Raiola, Nebraska's starter for the previous two seasons, went 6 of 19 for 43 yards with two interceptions and a lost fumble before he was benched. Brock Thomas replaced him and completed 11 of 15 for 156 yards and a touchdown, so Husker Corner reports that Raiola's start against his former team is no longer certain. Thomas Codo of Cornhuskers Wire called the Saturday-night meeting "a critical after-dark battle" for an Oregon team that has already lost to Oklahoma State.
What it means for Saturday at Oregon
Nebraska goes to Autzen Stadium on Saturday, October 17, for a late kickoff on Fox. Its last game was the closest it has played all year, a 20-17 home loss to No. 7 Indiana. Before that the Huskers won five straight by at least 18 points, including a 31-13 win at Michigan State and a 48-23 win over Maryland. Across six games they have outscored opponents 235-91, and they are 2-1 in the Big Ten with a 96-56 scoring edge. In that loss, Nebraska held the Hoosiers to 20 points, the kind of low-scoring game Codo says the Huskers would need to repeat at Oregon.
The board for Nebraska at Oregon does not reflect much of the Ducks' recent trouble. Oregon is favored at -245 on Novig, which posts Nebraska at +223. The best price on Nebraska anywhere is +226 at Polymarket, so the 12 venues are close together on the moneyline, and the sportsbooks' hold runs from 4.0% to 5.9%. On the spread, Novig has Oregon favored by 6.5 at -117 and Nebraska at +6.5 for +108. The line moves a little from venue to venue: theScore Bet has Nebraska at +7.5 for -120, and BetRivers has Oregon at -6 for -125. The total is 51.5 on Novig, with Hard Rock Bet at 52.5 on the under. Sportsbook hold on spreads and totals ranges from 3.4% to 6.8%.
The first half went the way the schedule suggested it would. The second half starts against a favored opponent that is still unsure who its quarterback will be.