Minnesota sits one game off the Big Ten lead, and a title-game path is taking shape

Two and a half weeks after a 41-13 beating at Purdue, Minnesota has a plausible path to the Big Ten championship game. The Gophers are 5-2 overall and 3-1 in league play, and as Cliff Brunt laid out for The Sporting News, only UCLA (5-0), Ohio State (4-0) and Indiana (4-1) sit ahead of them. Northwestern and Wisconsin are level at 3-1.

The win that set this up came Saturday in Minneapolis. Luke Drzewiecki kicked a 46-yard field goal as time expired to beat No. 15 Iowa 13-10, after Drake Lindsey escaped pressure and hit Jalen Smith for 39 yards to move into range, Yahoo Sports reported. With Floyd of Rosedale back, Minnesota now holds all three of its old rivalry trophies at once, which hasn't happened since 1978.

The case for the Gophers comes down to the schedule. Over the rest of the regular season they play every team ahead of them or tied with them except Ohio State: at Indiana, then UCLA, a trip to Penn State, Northwestern at home and a finale at Wisconsin. Brunt notes that several contenders have lost their starting quarterback. UCLA lost Nico Iamaleava for the season to a torn ACL, and Ohio State is playing a backup after Julian Sayin hurt his right arm. The Buckeyes still face USC, Oregon, Nebraska and Michigan. Brunt called Lindsey a quarterback who "just keeps plugging along" while rivals have had to adjust.

Winning the conference title game would also put Minnesota in the playoff, so the stakes are bigger than a trip to Indianapolis.

What it means for Saturday at Indiana

The first test is the hardest one. Minnesota visits No. 4 Indiana on Saturday, October 31 (CBS). The Hoosiers are beatable now: Ohio State won in Bloomington, and last week Indiana went scoreless in the second half before winning 13-6 in overtime at Michigan, according to Yahoo Sports. Minnesota beat that same Michigan team 20-14 at home.

Points have been hard for the Gophers to come by, too. Minnesota has scored 13, 13 and 20 in its last three games, and both of its losses, to Mississippi State and Purdue, were by 25 points or more. Its other Big Ten road game was a 27-24 win at Washington.

The market sees a mismatch anyway. Across the 11 venues on this site's board, Indiana is favored by about three touchdowns. Novig has the Hoosiers at -1076 on the moneyline and Minnesota at +1011. On the spread, Novig lists Indiana -20.5 at +102. The best Indiana number anywhere is Hard Rock Bet's -19.5 at -115, so the venues differ by a point. The total sits at 41.5 on Novig, -111 on the over and -100 on the under. FanDuel has the best over price at -106 on that same 41.5, and DraftKings has the best under at 42.5 for -110. Sportsbook hold on the game runs from 3.3% to 7.0% depending on the market.

A total that low suggests the market expects the kind of grind both teams played last week. Minnesota can stay in the title race even with a loss in Bloomington, but a win would put the Gophers into a tie with Indiana and make their path to Indianapolis much clearer.