The Heartland Line
Michigan slips slightly in ESPN FPI after bye week, with Penn State up next
Michigan slid a little in ESPN's FPI during its bye week even as it rose in SP+. Next up is Penn State, with the Wolverines favored by 5.5.
Michigan didn't play last weekend and still lost a little ground in one of the sport's most-cited computer ratings. The Wolverines slipped slightly in ESPN's Football Power Index after their bye week, even though they moved up in the SP+ rankings over the same stretch, SB Nation reported in a piece by Sam Bernardi that also ran on Yahoo Sports.
The drop itself was small, but SB Nation said FPI still sees a bleak season for Michigan. The model projects the Wolverines to finish with just over six wins. It also gives them almost no chance of contending in the Big Ten or reaching the College Football Playoff. At 3-2, Michigan is in a hole early in Kyle Whittingham's first season as head coach.
The two ratings moving in opposite directions shows that the computer models aren't settled on this team yet. Still, the FPI number lines up with how the season has gone so far. Michigan has a few chances left to change that picture. SB Nation pointed to three games against teams near the top of FPI: No. 3 Ohio State (rating 28.2), No. 7 Indiana (25.5) and No. 9 Oregon (19.5). Those games give Michigan its best shots at a win that would change how the season is viewed. They also explain why the model expects so little from the rest of the schedule.
The first test is closer. Penn State visits Ann Arbor on Saturday, Oct. 17, with kickoff at 3:30 p.m. EDT on CBS. The Nittany Lions come in at 3-3, so both programs need a result to steady their seasons. SB Nation called this game a turning point for Whittingham's first year. Bernardi wrote that "unless something drastic occurs against Penn State," it could be "a long start to the Kyle Whittingham era."
The market rates Michigan more highly than the FPI projection might suggest. The Wolverines are favored by 5.5 points. On Novig, one of the venues listing the game, Michigan is -203 to win outright. The best sportsbook price on Michigan is -215 at Pinnacle. The total is 42.5, which points to a lower-scoring game in mid-October.
Those numbers suggest the market sees home field and the matchup as enough to make Michigan a fairly clear favorite this week, whatever the season-long model says. A win over Penn State would put Michigan at 4-2 heading into the second half of the schedule, with the Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon games still ahead. A loss would leave the Wolverines at .500 and make FPI's projection of just over six wins look more realistic.
It's unusual for a program used to playing for conference titles in October to be fighting for bowl eligibility instead. Odds, spread and total for Saturday's game are on the Penn State at Michigan page.
