Wisconsin's passing game is the question as No. 16 USC comes to Madison

Wisconsin scored seven points at UCLA last weekend, and the problem going into Saturday's home game against No. 16 USC is easy to see. The Badgers have been winning by running the ball with quarterback Colton Joseph. They are not getting enough through the air, and the 6-1 Trojans will give them little room for error.

A preview published by Trojans Wire lays out the issue. Lawrenz, the Wisconsin observer quoted in the piece, says Joseph has carried the running game over the past few weeks. That push started when Iowa State transfer Abu Sama returned to the backfield a week earlier. But a 66-yard passing day was the low point, and Lawrenz also wants more than the 34 yards per game Sama has been producing. "No one is asking Joseph to throw for 300 yards a game," Lawrenz said, and his point is that the offense needs some kind of balance.

The offensive line has also been a topic all week. Lawrenz pointed to some drama over a viral quote that he says was taken out of context. He framed the real issue as execution: if one blocker misses an assignment, the run game Wisconsin depends on stops working. If USC can load up against the run without worrying about the pass, Joseph's legs alone may not be enough.

What it means for Saturday

The season lines show two different teams. Wisconsin is 4-2 and leans on defense. It has allowed 100 points in six games, about 16.7 per game, and it held Michigan State to a field goal two weeks ago. The scoring has swung from 54 against Eastern Michigan to 7 at UCLA. Against ranked opponents the Badgers are 1-2 and have been outscored 78-44, though the one win came 24-20 at Penn State.

USC brings the more productive offense, averaging about 36 points a game. The Trojans are also coming off a 31-23 win at Penn State, so both teams have won in State College. But USC's defense has given up 21 or more points in five of its seven games, and its only loss was 41-27 to Oregon. A Wisconsin offense that can't move the ball through the air could still miss its chance against a defense that has given up points.

Across the 11 venues on this site's board, USC is a modest road favorite. Novig has the Trojans at -138 on the moneyline and Wisconsin at +133. The best Wisconsin price anywhere is +135 at theScore Bet, so the venues are close on who wins. The spread varies more. Novig lists USC -2.5 at -115 and Wisconsin +2.5 at +108, while Pinnacle offers Wisconsin +3 at -112. That half-point matters because 3 is a common final margin.

The total sits at 50.5 on Novig, with the over at +102 and the under at -111. Pinnacle has the number lower at 49.5. Sportsbook hold runs from 3.1% to 6.8% on the moneyline. A total near 50 assumes Wisconsin will score more than it did at UCLA. Whether it can depends on Joseph's passing.