Oregon football vs. Michigan: Ducks favored by 10.5 as Big Ten hopes hang on November

Oregon's next game is Saturday, Nov. 14, at home against Michigan on FS1. The Ducks are 10.5-point favorites, and the total is 40.5. Oregon is 6-3 overall and 4-2 in Big Ten play. It comes in off its best win of the season, a 41-28 victory at No. 12 Ohio State.

Our Oregon team page is the full guide to the schedule, results and season history. This story covers what's new this week: the matchup, the prices and what is still at stake in the conference.

Where the Ducks stand

According to ESPN, Oregon has won two straight. It beat No. 20 Northwestern 34-26 at home before the win in Columbus. Those results came after a three-week stretch when the offense stalled: a 15-17 home loss to No. 21 UCLA, a 17-14 escape against Nebraska and a 10-21 loss at Illinois.

Oregon's six conference games have produced four wins: USC, Nebraska, Northwestern and Ohio State. The two losses came to UCLA and Illinois. With two league losses, the Ducks have little room left. They need to win out, and they likely need help from teams ahead of them, to reach the Big Ten title game or a playoff spot. A home loss to Michigan would end most of that hope.

The nonconference record was mixed: a 34-27 win over Boise State, an 84-0 win over Portland State and a 39-31 loss at Oklahoma State.

The line and the total

The board on this site tracks 12 venues for the game. Prices are on the Michigan at Oregon odds page:

• Spread: Oregon is favored by 10.5 on most of the market. Novig, one of the venues, lists Oregon -10.5 at -106 and Michigan +10.5 at -115. Hard Rock Bet has the highest Michigan number at +11.5 (-110). Pinnacle lists Oregon -10.5 at -102.
• Moneyline: Oregon is -413 on Novig, which works out to about $24 profit on $100. Michigan is +388.
• Total: Most venues have 40.5. Novig has the over at +102 and the under at -120. Pinnacle lists 39.

Sportsbook hold on these markets runs from about 4 to 7 percent, so the posted prices differ from one venue to the next.

Why the total is low

The 40.5 number reflects how uneven Oregon's scoring has been. The Ducks average about 34 points per game and allow about 22. Without the 84-0 game against Portland State, the average drops to about 28. Their losses to UCLA and Illinois and the win over Nebraska each had about 31 or 32 combined points. The Ohio State game had 69 and the USC game 68. The low total suggests the market expects more of the October version than the Ohio State version.

For Oregon to cover 10.5, the offense that scored 41 in Columbus has to show up again. It managed 15, 17 and 10 points in consecutive weeks in October.

What comes next

Saturday is the start of Oregon's final push for a spot in the conference race. After this game, every result matters for tiebreakers and for how the Ducks are ranked going into bowl season. The Oregon team page has the rest of the schedule.

A note on the prices: sports wagering is legal only in states that authorize it, and generally only for adults 21 and over. It is not legal in states that have not authorized it. These odds are listed for information only.