Ohio State still has a 41.8% playoff chance in ESPN's FPI despite third loss

Ohio State has three losses, its worst ranking in more than a decade and a backup freshman at quarterback. ESPN's Football Power Index still hasn't given up on the Buckeyes. As The Spun reported, the model gives Ohio State a 41.8 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff. That is the 11th-best figure in the country, behind Miami, Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, Utah, Indiana, Texas, Boise State, UCLA and Wake Forest.

The number arrives a day after Oregon won 41-28 at Ohio Stadium. ESPN reported that the Buckeyes led 14-0 in the first quarter before the Ducks scored 38 straight points. It was the longest run of points anyone had scored against Ohio State at home since Wisconsin's 42 in 1999. The loss came a week after an 18-30 defeat at USC, so Ohio State has now lost back-to-back games by double digits for the first time in 22 years. It is also the program's first three-loss season since 2011 and the first under Ryan Day. "Not someplace we thought we'd be," Day told ESPN.

The Buckeyes are 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the Big Ten, and they fell to No. 21 in Sunday's AP poll. The FPI's 41.8 percent assumes they win out against Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan. A Big Ten title-game trip would take more than that. Ohio State would need to finish 7-2 in league play and get losses from Indiana and/or UCLA, plus slips from Oregon and USC. True freshman Luke Fahey has made two straight starts in place of Julian Sayin, whom ESPN reported is out indefinitely with an injury to his throwing arm. Fahey threw for 360 yards against Oregon, but more than half of them came in the fourth quarter, after the game was decided.

What it means for Northwestern

The model's math and the schedule point to the same thing: Ohio State has to win its last three. That run starts Saturday, November 14, when Northwestern visits Columbus on Fox. The season line shows two teams. Through the first seven games, Ohio State allowed 24 points or fewer every time, including a 19-15 win at Indiana and a 31-14 win at Iowa. Over the last two weeks it gave up 71 points and scored 46. The Buckeyes have still averaged about 35.7 points and allowed about 18.3 over nine games, and all three losses came against Texas, USC and Oregon.

The board for the game has Ohio State favored on all 12 venues. On Novig, the Buckeyes are -400 on the moneyline and Northwestern is +355. Novig lists Ohio State at -11.5 (-113). The best Ohio State price anywhere is FanDuel's -10.5 at -114, a point shorter. On the other side, BetMGM gives Northwestern +12 at -110, against Novig's +11.5 at -115. The total is 46.5 on Novig, with the over at -122 and the under at even money. BetMGM has the highest number at 47.5. So the venues are within about a point of each other on the spread and the total. The sportsbooks' hold runs from roughly 4 to 7 percent depending on the market.

That total is lower than Ohio State's combined scores in four of its last five games. It reflects a team still finding its offense with a freshman at quarterback. A clean win would keep the FPI's case intact. Anything closer would put more pressure on the Nebraska and Michigan games.