The Heartland Line
Novig pricesNebraska PFF Grades vs. Oregon: Secondary Shines as Overworked Front Fades Late
Caleb Benning and the Nebraska secondary graded well in the 17-14 loss at Oregon, but a front that played heavy snaps faded as the Ducks rallied late.
For three quarters in Eugene, Nebraska's defense held up. The Pro Football Focus grades from Saturday's 17-14 loss at Oregon show how well it played and where it finally gave way. The snap counts and grades compiled by Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI put the secondary at the top of the roster. They also show a defensive front that played a heavy load of snaps and wore down as Oregon ran 60 plays after halftime.
Caleb Benning led all Nebraska defenders with an 84.2 overall grade on 73 snaps, which the outlet called the best game of his career. Dwayne McDougle graded 80.9, and Victor Evans posted a 77.3. Evans gave up four catches for 21 yards on nine targets and broke up three passes. Cornerback Andrew Marshall was the exception. He allowed four receptions for 47 yards on six targets, close to the 56 yards he had given up all season. The Huskers played without safety Jamir Conn.
Owen Chambliss played all 77 defensive snaps, made 15 tackles and graded 72.3. Vincent Shavers had nine tackles on a season-high 53 snaps. Dexter Foster forced a fumble and graded 76.4 in 26 snaps, as the linebacker rotation stayed three players deep for a second straight week.
The workload up front tells the rest of the story. Jahsear Whittington (70 snaps, 52.3), Owen Stoudmire (62, 59.3) and Williams Nwaneri (61, 56.7) all played heavy minutes and graded below 60. Reserve Pietrzak graded 78.6 in only 18 snaps. Oregon ran just 27 plays in the first half, then 24 in the third quarter and 36 in the fourth. The Associated Press reported that Dylan Raiola, who spent two seasons at Nebraska, entered in the fourth quarter with the Ducks down 14-6. He led a field-goal drive, then threw a 4-yard touchdown to Jamari Johnson with 28 seconds left, and the two-point conversion won it. Those two drives covered 151 yards and used 12:45 of clock.
The offense gave the defense little margin. In a companion breakdown, Nebraska Cornhuskers On SI reported that Anthony Colandrea went 18 of 33 for 164 yards, with a touchdown and an interception, and also ran for a score. He was pressured on 13 of 40 dropbacks. Nebraska's running backs managed 58 yards on 18 carries. Receiver Kwazi Gilmer was charged with two drops, giving him eight on the season. Running back Jamal Rule was hurt, and left guard Gunnar Gottula left the game with an injury.
What it means for the next game
Nebraska is 5-2 after losing two straight by three points each: 20-17 to No. 7 Indiana and 17-14 at Oregon. Before that, the Huskers won five straight by an average of 29.4 points. The defense has held six of seven opponents to 21 points or fewer. A bye week now gives the front seven time to recover before Washington comes to Lincoln on Halloween, October 31. The linebackers will likely carry a heavy load again in that game.
Oregon is 4-2 and plays at Illinois on Saturday on BTN. On this site's board, the Ducks are favored at -335 on Novig and by 9.5 points on the spread at -108. Illinois is +308 on Novig, and the best price anywhere is +350 at Hard Rock Bet. On the spread, BetRivers has Illinois at +11 (-114), compared with +9.5 (-104) on Novig. The total is 51.5 at every venue. Novig prices the over at -113, while BetMGM's -108 is the best available. Sportsbook hold on the moneyline runs from 4.0% to 6.1% across the 11 venues.