Joel Klatt flags unbeaten UCLA as upset risk against Wisconsin with new QB starting

UCLA is 5-0 and coming off a road win at Oregon, but FOX analyst Joel Klatt does not like how Saturday sets up for the Bruins. Klatt, who has backed UCLA publicly this season, put the Bruins on upset alert against unranked Wisconsin, according to EssentiallySports in a story carried by Yahoo Sports. "I don't love this matchup for UCLA because of this Wisconsin defense," Klatt said.

Two things are behind his warning. The first is the Badgers' defense. Klatt said it ranks fifth nationally in yards allowed per play. Wisconsin won at then-No. 13 Penn State and then beat Michigan State 31-3, a game in which quarterback Colton Joseph threw three touchdown passes and ran for 141 yards. Klatt described Luke Fickell's team as far better than the group that struggled late last season.

The second is at quarterback for UCLA. EssentiallySports reported that Nico Iamaleava is expected to miss the rest of the season with a knee injury he suffered against Oregon. Ty Dieffenbach, who closed out that game, takes over. He threw only six passes in the 17-15 win at Eugene, though he started before at Cal Poly and threw for 1,305 yards there. Klatt's point is that Oregon had to react to Dieffenbach in the middle of a game, while Wisconsin has had a full week to prepare for him.

Bob Chesney's offense has run through the ground game so far. Running back Wayne Knight has 548 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, and the Bruins average 253.2 rushing yards per game, near the top of the country. That gives Wisconsin an obvious plan: stop Knight and make a first-time starter win the game with his arm.

What it means for Saturday

The scores show why Klatt sees a close game. UCLA's last two wins have been very different. The Bruins beat Maryland 54-3 on the road and then got past Oregon by two points, a game Iamaleava did not finish. Earlier they beat Purdue 52-38, San Diego State 28-10 and California 45-24. Those were mostly high-scoring wins, and the Badgers have not been giving up many points.

The prices point the same way. On this site's Wisconsin at UCLA board, which tracks 10 venues, UCLA is favored by 2.5 points. Novig has the Bruins at -108 on that number and Wisconsin at +102 to cover. The best number anywhere for Wisconsin is BetRivers, which has the Badgers at +3 for -115. That half-point matters in a game expected to be decided by a field goal. On the moneyline, Novig has UCLA at -133 and Wisconsin at +130, close to an even game for a home team that hasn't lost. Klatt also noted that the 2.5-point line stood out to him at first.

The total is 42.5 at Novig, with the Over at -111. BetMGM has the highest number on the board at 43.5, with the Under at -110. Sportsbook hold runs from 4.5% to 6.7% on the spread and 4.3% to 6.8% on the total. That spread is wide enough that the venue a reader checks changes the price.

Klatt also noted that UCLA has the third-best odds to win the Big Ten, behind Indiana and Ohio State, and that Wisconsin has moved up to fifth. A Wisconsin win would push the Badgers into that race. A UCLA win would show the Bruins can win with Dieffenbach starting, even if their running game is slowed down. Oregon, now 3-2, hosts Nebraska the same day and is favored by 6.5 at Novig.