Iowa's Playoff Push Meets Purdue as Indiana's Strength of Schedule Takes a Hit

Iowa's 24-10 win at Northwestern left the Hawkeyes 7-2 and close enough to the College Football Playoff to start a national argument. Indiana spent the weekend idle and still came out of it worse off. Pete Fiutak of College Football News took up both Big Ten storylines in his weekly column. His case for Iowa depends on the number 10-2. Fiutak notes that the committee has never left out a Power Four team at 10-2 or better in favor of a three-loss team before championship weekend. That is a habit, not a rule, but it is a reliable one.

To get there, Iowa has to win out against Purdue, at Illinois and Nebraska. Fiutak expects the Hawkeyes to be favored in all three, though he doesn't consider any of them a lock. A 10-2 finish would probably leave Iowa as one of three Big Ten teams with fewer than three losses, along with Indiana and UCLA. The weak spot is the résumé. The best wins are a 30-0 shutout of Wisconsin, a one-point win at Michigan and a 16-13 nonconference win over Iowa State. The losses were a 31-14 beating at home by Ohio State and a 13-10 grinder at Minnesota.

Indiana has the opposite problem. The Hoosiers look safe for the playoff, but the teams they have beaten made them look worse this weekend. Michigan lost at home to Michigan State, and Northwestern, Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota all lost by double digits. So did Ohio State, the only team to beat Indiana. Washington and Purdue, two of the three opponents left on the schedule, also lost. Fiutak's summary: "Their schedule respectability took a nosedive." He still projects Indiana to finish 11-1, beat UCLA for the Big Ten title and land a top-two seed.

What it means for Saturday

Indiana (8-1) hosts No. 20 USC on CBS, and the Hoosiers come in winning games without scoring much. They averaged 32.4 points a game this season, mostly on the strength of early blowouts. Over the last four games they have averaged 17.8, with wins of 23-16 over Minnesota, 13-6 at Michigan and 20-17 at Nebraska. The defense has carried them, allowing 12.4 points a game. On this site's USC at Indiana board, Indiana is favored at -251 on Novig. Kalshi has the same -251 number, which is the best price on the Hoosiers anywhere. USC is +228 on Novig and as high as +243 at Pinnacle. The spread is Indiana -7.5 across the 12 venues tracked, at -102 on Novig and +102 at FanDuel. The total of 49.5 looks high for a team whose last four games averaged about 33 combined points.

Iowa (7-2) hosts Purdue on NBC, and its defense is on a run. The Hawkeyes allowed 10 points over the last two weeks and are giving up 12.2 a game this season. Purdue is coming off a loss to Maryland. On the Purdue at Iowa board, Iowa is favored by 17.5, priced at -106 on Novig and -105 at DraftKings. Novig has the Hawkeyes at -809 on the moneyline and Purdue at +669. Polymarket's -145 on Iowa is far off the rest of the board and doesn't match a 17.5-point spread. Sportsbook hold on the moneyline runs from 3.3% to 5.9%. Each of these games has a playoff argument riding on it. A loss would end Iowa's hopes of reaching 10-2. Indiana needs a win over a ranked USC team to answer the questions about its schedule.