Iowa Football Odds: Hawkeyes Are 2.5-Point Underdogs at Northwestern

Iowa is the underdog this week. Northwestern is favored by 2.5 points over the Hawkeyes for Saturday's game on Fox, and the total sits at 45.5. On Novig, one of the 11 venues on our board, Northwestern is -125 on the moneyline and Iowa is +117. The spread is close to even on both sides: Iowa +2.5 at -104 and Northwestern -2.5 at -102.

For Iowa's full schedule, results and season outlook, see our Iowa Hawkeyes team page. Live prices from every venue are on the Iowa at Northwestern odds page, which updates about every ten minutes.

What the prices say

A -125 price works out to about a 56 percent chance that Northwestern wins. Iowa's +117 works out to about 46 percent. Those two figures add up to roughly 101.6 percent, so Novig's margin on this game is small. The sportsbooks on our board are holding between 4.1 and 6.3 percent on the moneyline and between 4.3 and 6.8 percent on the spread.

The total is 45.5 on Novig, with the over at even money and the under at -104. Fanatics has the highest number on the board at 46, with the under priced at -115. A 2.5-point spread is smaller than a field goal, so the market sees this as close to a toss-up, with the edge going to the home team.

Iowa's defense sets the terms

The Hawkeyes are 6-2, according to ESPN, and they come in off a 30-0 home win over No. 25 Wisconsin. That was Iowa's fourth shutout of the season, after Northern Illinois (40-0), Northern Iowa (55-0) and now the Badgers. Across eight games Iowa has allowed 100 points, or 12.5 per game.

In Big Ten play the defense has given up more. Iowa has allowed 17.4 points per game in five conference games. Ohio State scored 31 in Iowa City and Washington scored 24, but Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin were held to 19 or fewer.

The offense is the question

Iowa averages 28.3 points per game overall. That falls to 23.0 in conference play, and the range is wide: 41 at Washington, but 14 against Ohio State and 10 in the 13-10 loss at Minnesota. The Minnesota game is the most recent road result and the clearest warning for this week. Iowa's two other road games were a 41-24 win in Seattle and a 20-19 win at No. 18 Michigan.

That split matters for the total. Three of Iowa's five Big Ten games finished under 45.5 combined points (23, 30 and 39). The Ohio State game landed at 45, and only the Washington game went clearly over. Iowa's whole-season scoring is pushed up by blowouts of nonconference opponents. Its league games have been played closer to the number posted for Saturday.

Where Iowa stands in the Big Ten

Iowa is 3-2 in the conference, with wins over Michigan, Washington and Wisconsin and losses to Ohio State and Minnesota. Two league losses with a month left mean the Hawkeyes need help to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. A road loss as a small underdog would effectively end that run. A win keeps Iowa in the group chasing the leaders going into the final weeks of the regular season.

Legality

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